DABUR Research Report

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Dabur India – BUY
CMP Rs102, Target Rs115
December 16, 2010

Sector: FMCG
After a long consolidation, Dabur India has broken out from a falling
channel. This has brought to an end the short-term downtrend in the
Sensex: 19,648
FMCG counter. The price has sustained above the falling channel and
CMP (Rs):
has formed a convex structure on the daily chart, indicating a steady
Reco type:
accumulation in the counter. A move past Rs100 should provide a
Target 1 (Rs):
decent upside opportunity of 10-15% in the near term.
Target 2 (Rs):

Stop Loss (Rs):
The neck line of inverted head and shoulder corresponds at Rs99,
which should act as a solid base for building up of momentum. The
Upside (%):
52 Week h/l (Rs):
112 / 73
stock has also managed to trade above the short-term and the
medium-term moving averages, which initially acted as stiff
Market cap (Rscr) :
resistance. Hence, the stage is set for the stock to rally to Rs115 in
6m Avg vol (‘000Nos):
the near term.
No of o/s shares (mn):

FV (Re):
Being a defensive counter, the Dabur India has held well above the
Bloomberg code:
long-term support levels despite volatility in the broader markets.
Reuters code:

BSE code:
On the weekly chart, the RSI has given a positive crossover after a
NSE code:
long time. This also provides better risk reward ratio from the
Prices as on 15 Dec, 2010
current levels.
Shareholding pattern

Daily chart

September '10
Promoters 68.7
Institutions 24.3
Non promoter corp hold
Public & others

Performance rel. to sensex
(%) 1m
DABUR 10.2


ITC (0.6)

Share price trend
Source: India Infoline Research, Metastock

Derivatives check
Dabur India has seen good delivery based buying of around 3mn

shares in the last three trading sessions, with an average delivery of

around 60%. The stock has experienced good long build-up in

current month futures of around 74,000 in total open interest of

3.8mn. This long build-up was preceded by some short covering. The

stock has been maintaining an average volatility of around 36%

despite of some shorts seen a fortnight before. Dabur India is also

Technical Analyst
trading with low VAR (Value at Risk) of around 8.84%. The outlook
Hadrien Mendonca
on the stock appears to be positive from the current level of Rs100
[email protected]
for a target of Rs115 in the short term.

Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

– Absolute return of over +10%
Market Performer – Absolute return between -10% to +10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

Published in 2010. © India Infoline Ltd 2010

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